LSTM Models for Actuarial Loss Reserves Forecasting
Introduction
Insurers reserve funds for eventual claims payments based on historical claims development patterns. LSTM models improve reserve forecasting by capturing temporal patterns in claims development through time-series analysis.
Time Series Modeling Approach
LSTMs model claims development patterns showing how claims incurred in each period develop over time as more information emerges.
Results and Improvement
LSTM-based reserves show improved accuracy and stability compared to classical actuarial chain-ladder approaches.
Conclusion
Deep learning improves loss reserve forecasting accuracy and financial stability.